subscription digital music and book publishing

Charles Blow, my favorite New York Times columnist, had a great piece this past Saturday (8/1/2009) about music buying habits. He briefly recounts the file-sharing/piracy crisis in the early 2000s before sharing some new research about the next challenge: music streaming.

The Recording Industry Association of America reports, according to Charles, that since 1999 the value of music sales has been cut in half. File sharing sites like Napster were a large part of the problem back then but the trend is slowing. A survey of British fans by Leading Question/Music Ally found that file sharing among 14- to 18-year-olds dropped by one-third from 12/2007 to 1/2009. At the same time, two-thirds of that group now regularly listen to streaming music and one-third listens daily.

Those of us in other cultural content delivery systems (for me it is books) have to pay attention to these trends. These are the book-buying consumers of tomorrow (one hopes). But once you become habituated to receiving content electronically (and at no cost) it becomes a yardstick that applies not just to one type of entertainment but to other cultural transactions, as well.

So what kind of payment model will work best with this new consumption pattern? The Apple Store model of paying for each downloaded cut will soon be outmoded. Apple has always been at the forefront of change, but Charles' mention of their new effort with four music labels to promote digital album sales seems a bit backward looking to me. It seems as though they are trying to serve themselves rather than serve the consumer and that is a big mistake.

Young consumers want their content and want it delivered in flexible ways. There will be those who want digital albums just like there are those who want vinyl albums. But if the consumer wants digital streaming music they will find a way to get it, with or without the labels and Apple.

One of the new payment methods discussed in book publishing is a subscription payment plan. But it is hard to imagine anyone buying a subscription plan for Random House books or even one of its subsidiary imprints. But more branded types of imprints (romance books, cookbooks, and others) maybe the place to start a subscription payment plan. But my hunch is that a new model like subscription plans will likely be a bottom-up evolution. Online communities formed around specific tastes are the perfect aggregators to offer subscription book and music services.

Perhaps some are already trying these new models. I'd love to hear stories of those who are trying something like this.